The Structural Overhaul of the U.S. H-1B Lottery: Priority Over Probability

The 2026 H-1B registration season marks the end of the random selection model that has been used to run the program for decades. The change to a weighted selection process, which happens after the beneficiary-centric system is stable, changes the lottery from a game of numbers to a contest of economic value. The system now clearly favors those at the higher end of the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OES) spectrum, rather than giving every eligible registrant an equal mathematical chance.

This change fixes the long-standing problem that the lottery didn't make a clear distinction between entry-level jobs and highly skilled professionals. The Department of Homeland Security is using the H-1B cap as a strategic tool to make sure that the most important jobs get the fewest visas by putting Level IV and Level III wage earners first. For applicants, this means that the prevailing wage is no longer just a minimum requirement; it is now the main factor that decides who gets the job.

People who apply for the beneficiary-centric identifier often don't understand how it works. Using a unique passport or travel document number as the "golden key" for registration means that only one person is entered into the pool, no matter how many companies register them. If chosen, all of the companies that registered that person can file a petition, but the person can only file one. This has worked to bring down the fake rise in registration numbers that happened in previous cycles.

This trade-off is especially hard for recent graduates from other countries and people just starting out in their careers. Those who only qualify for Level I wages now have a statistical bottleneck that makes it very unlikely that they will be chosen compared to more experienced professionals. This creates a seniority premium that could make people in the U.S. less likely to firms from hiring junior international workers, which could move the entry-level pipeline to other visa categories or offshore locations.

A quiet but important change in policy is the closer look at the definitions of specialty occupations in light of these higher wages. USCIS is more often asking if a high wage level matches the job duties listed, or if a Level I wage really reflects a job that needs a specialized degree. This makes it harder to get approved because the salary, job title, and educational requirement must all fit together perfectly.

Employers must also navigate the increased registration fees and the potential for more precise selection rounds. The over-selection buffer that USCIS uses to reach the 85,000 cap is more accurate now that the system can tell people apart. This makes it less likely that the second and third lotteries will be as chaotic as they were in the early 2020s. The agency can better guess the actual filing rate from a group of unique candidates.

In the end, the changes in 2026 show that the H-1B system is moving toward a points-light system. While the U.S. does not have a formal points-based migration system like Canada or Australia, the weighting of the lottery based on salary serves the same purpose. It filters for human capital value at the point of entry, ensuring that the H-1B remains a bridge for high-tier professional migration rather than a general-purpose work permit.